Can Small Schools Still Win in College Football’s Big-Money NIL Era?

With NIL and free agency-style transfers reshaping the sport, mid-major programs are turning to retention strategies, transfer portal gems, and coaching stability to stay competitive.

For decades, smaller college football programs operated under a familiar formula: find overlooked talent, develop them over four or five years, and, if the stars aligned, compete for a conference title and maybe even a shot at a major bowl game.

It wasn’t easy, but it was a system that allowed programs with smaller budgets to build continuity, foster loyalty, and punch above their weight.

That model is gone.

With the explosion of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals and the rise of college football’s free agency era, smaller programs are scrambling to keep up in a sport that now feels more like the Wild West than a traditional talent pipeline.

The biggest schools, backed by deep-pocketed NIL collectives, can lure top players with six- and even seven-figure deals, making it harder than ever for mid-major and lower-budget programs to retain talent.

But while the ground has shifted, there is reason for optimism.

The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP), set to debut in 2024, has thrown a lifeline to programs willing to adapt. With automatic bids for the top six conference champions, the door is now open for smaller schools to compete on the national stage—if they can find a way to build a roster that can withstand the relentless player movement.

Adapting to Survive: How Smaller Schools Are Adjusting

Without the massive NIL war chests of the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world, smaller programs have had to get creative. For them, success in the new era isn’t about outspending—it’s about outsmarting.

1. The New Recruiting Strategy: “Development + Retention”

In the past, smaller programs could take their time developing players. Now, the challenge isn’t just finding talent—it’s keeping it. If a two-star recruit blossoms into an all-conference player, there’s a good chance a larger program will come calling with a lucrative NIL deal.

To combat this, many smaller schools are shifting their NIL approach from recruiting to retention. Instead of spending limited NIL dollars trying to land four-star recruits out of high school, they’re focusing on creating smaller, sustainable NIL opportunities to keep homegrown players from transferring.

“Before, we were just trying to get them here and develop them,” one Group of Five coach told The Athletic. “Now, we have to be ready with NIL deals to keep them from leaving.”

2. Leaning Into the Transfer Portal

For years, smaller programs saw the transfer portal as a threat—a way for bigger schools to poach their best players. Now, they’re flipping the script.

The transfer portal isn’t just about losing players—it’s also about gaining them. Power Five programs, loaded with four- and five-star recruits, can’t keep everyone happy. That means there’s an opportunity for savvy smaller schools to bring in talented players who didn’t get their shot elsewhere.

Schools like Tulane, Cincinnati, and UTSA have already used this approach to build rosters capable of competing on a national stage. Instead of chasing high schoolers who might leave in a year or two, they’re focusing on landing transfers who are hungry for playing time and looking for a fresh start.

3. Coaching Stability as a Recruiting Tool

In an era where players are constantly on the move, coaching stability has become a major recruiting advantage.

Smaller schools can’t compete financially with the SEC and Big Ten, but they can offer something that’s becoming increasingly rare: consistency. While blue-chip recruits at powerhouse programs may deal with frequent coaching changes and staff turnover, players at smaller schools are often given more time to develop under a steady system.

That stability—paired with the right scheme and the right development program—can turn an overlooked program into a legitimate playoff contender.

The 12-Team Playoff: A Game Changer for Smaller Programs

For years, the College Football Playoff was an exclusive club. With only four spots available, the system all but guaranteed that smaller schools had no real shot at a national title. Even an undefeated season often wasn’t enough.

That changes with the 12-team playoff.

Under the new format, the top six conference champions are guaranteed a spot, meaning a dominant Group of Five team no longer has to rely on rankings or committee bias—win your league, and you’re in.

This shift has created a new level of optimism for programs that once felt like they were stuck on the outside looking in. Schools like Boise State, Tulane, or Appalachian State no longer have to hope for a one-off New Year’s Six bowl—they can realistically build toward a playoff run.

And if one of these programs makes a deep run? It changes everything. More visibility means more NIL opportunities, better recruits, and, ultimately, a more level playing field.

The Future: Change, Uncertainty, and Opportunity

No one is pretending this new era is easy. The days of building a roster over four or five years, watching players grow and develop in one system, and seeing a senior class leave as battle-tested veterans? They’re fading fast.

For smaller schools, that’s a tough pill to swallow.

But while the system has changed, the opportunity has never been greater. The programs that embrace strategy over spending, invest in development and retention, and leverage the expanded playoff will be the ones that thrive.

Yes, college football is different now. But for the right team, in the right situation, the dream of competing for a national championship is no longer just that—a dream. It’s a real, tangible possibility.

And that’s something worth betting on.

Related Articles From Around The Web:

• The Continued Impact of NIL On College Football: This article suggests that NIL deals could lead to disparities within teams, with some players earning significant money while others earn little or nothing. The introduction of NIL is having a major impact on the dynamics and economics of college football.
• Is NIL a good thing or a bad thing? Sports industry expert weighs in: According to this article, NIL empowers college athletes to build their personal brand and secure financial benefits while still in college. They can collaborate with businesses and monetize their name, image, and likeness in various ways.
• Understanding NIL Deals and the Impact on College Athletics: This piece explains that NIL allows college athletes to monetize their personal brand by profiting from their name, image and likeness through various opportunities. It is significantly changing the landscape of college athletics, including football.